Information rigidities and exchange rate expectations

Heterogeneous Expectations, Exchange Rate Dynamics and Predictability

This paper proposes a simple chartist-fundamentalist model in which we allow for nonlinear time variation in chartists’ extrapolation rate. Estimation of the model using monthly data for the major currencies vis-a-vis the US dollar shows that the model is significant in-sample and that it has out-of-sample predictive power for some of the currencies. We investigate the power of tests of the ran...

Estimating Exchange Rate Equations Using Estimated Expectations

This paper takes a somewhat different approach from the recent literature in estimating exchange rate equations. It assumes uncovered interest rate parity and models how expectations are formed. Agents are assumed to base their expectations of future interest rates and prices, which are needed in the determination of the exchange rate, on predictions from a ten equation VAR model. The overall m...

Testing the rationality of exchange rate and interest rate expectations: an empirical study of Australian survey-based expectations

This paper examines the rationality of the Australian survey-based expectations, 1and 4-week-ahead $US/$A exchange rate and 2 and 4-week-ahead Australian 90-day bank bill and 10-year bond rates. The actual and expected variables are found to be cointegrated, indicating that the expected future values and the future realizations of the exchange rate and interest rates have long-run equilibrium r...

The exchange rate in a dynamic-optimizing business cycle model with nominal rigidities: a quantitative investigation

This paper studies a quantitative dynamic-optimizing business cycle model of a small open economy with staggered price and wage setting. The model exhibits exchange rate overshooting in response to money supply shocks. The predicted variability of the nominal and, especially, of the real exchange rate is noticeably higher than in standard Real Business Cycle models with flexible prices and wage...

The Appropriate Exchange Rate System and the Regulation and Forecast of Exchange Rate for Iran's Economy